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Tropical Storm Jerry – September 18, 2019

TS Jerry has formed in the Atlantic and looks like based on the official forecast that most land masses will be missed. At the end of five days the NHC forecast has TS Jerry turning and may not pose a threat to the US Coast. Still a long way out, so keep watching.

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019

1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better

organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center.

While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall

satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours.

The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches

almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived

ASCAT-C scatterometer pass.

Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or

two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear.

While this type of environment could support even more

strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air

around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification

rates for now.  This forecast leans heavier on the regional

hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker

cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models.

Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and

the shear could become somewhat strong by next week.  While little

change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn’t

happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the

environmental factors become more clear.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12

kt.  The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a

faster forward speed for the next couple of days.  Afterward, a

northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in

the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The

NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory

and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF

model and the corrected-consensus forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it moves

near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to

determine the direct impacts to the islands. Interests there should

ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the

progress of this system.  Watches could be issued for a portion of

this area this afternoon or evening.


INIT  18/1500Z 14.6N  49.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

12H  19/0000Z 15.3N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

24H  19/1200Z 16.3N  53.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

36H  20/0000Z 17.3N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

48H  20/1200Z 18.4N  59.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

72H  21/1200Z 20.5N  65.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

96H  22/1200Z 23.3N  69.1W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  23/1200Z 26.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH


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