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Tropical Depression #10 – September 17, 2019

Weekly_Outlook (2)


Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019

1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the

central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized

this morning.  Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the

Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical

depression.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the

satellite estimates.  The depression is forecast to move over

gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable

upper-level environment.  The only negative factor for

intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low

shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast

during the next several days.  The NHC forecast calls for the

depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain

hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in

good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models.

Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial

motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt.  A strong deep-layer

ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression

generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the

next few days.  The track guidance is in relatively good agreement

through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward

Islands in about 3 days.  By late in the period, the cyclone is

expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is

increasing spread among the guidance.  The global model ensemble

means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and

UKMET are along the left side.  The NHC track lies close the

consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest


Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the

progress of this system.


INIT  17/1500Z 12.9N 44.9W  30 KT  35 MPH

12H  18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W  35 KT  40 MPH

24H  18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W  40 KT  45 MPH

36H  19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W  45 KT  50 MPH

48H  19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W  55 KT  65 MPH

72H  20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W  65 KT  75 MPH

96H  21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W  75 KT  85 MPH

120H  22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W  80 KT  90 MPH

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