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Tropical Weather Update – October 17, 2019


Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low

pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continue to

show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are expected

to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or

subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the

system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of

Mexico.  The low is forecast to approach the northern or

northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of

development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough

surf over those areas.  Locally heavy rainfall is also possible

across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this

weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast

should monitor the progress of this system.  For more information

about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico,

see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of

the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance

aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if


* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service

can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01

KWBC, and online at

Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico issued by the

National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header MIAOFFNT4,

WMO header FZNT24 KNHC, and online at

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