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Update Hurricane Dorian – September 6, 2019

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  52

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019

500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019


The center of the eye of Hurricane Dorian is located just off the

coast of North Carolina not far from Cape Lookout.  Based on data

from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and Doppler radar velocities,

the initial intensity is set at 80 kt.  This estimate is a

compromise between the flight-level winds and SFMR values.  The

minimum pressure remains quite low, 956 mb, based on surface

observations and aircraft fixes.  There have been several reports in

eastern North Carolina of sustained tropical-storm-force winds and

hurricane-force gusts, with the strongest winds being reported in

the northern eyewall.


Dorian is moving northeastward at 12 kt.  A faster northeastward

motion is expected during the next few days as a mid- to upper-level

trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system

and accelerates the steering flow.  This track forecast takes the

hurricane along the coast of North Carolina during the next several

hours and near or over Atlantic Canada this weekend.  The models

are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the

middle of the guidance envelope.Hu


The hurricane is expected to gradually weaken during the next couple

of days due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. Dorian is

expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current in about

36 hours, and head over much colder waters after that.  These

atmospheric and oceanic conditions should cause the cyclone to

become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical in about 2 days.  As

the system gains latitude, the tropical-storm-force winds are

expected to expand significantly.  The NHC intensity forecast is

largely an update of the previous one and in line with the various

consensus aids.


Key Messages:


  1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected

to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of

southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay.  Water levels

could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents

in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency



  1. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more

widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia

this morning. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these

areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is





INIT  06/0900Z 34.6N 76.2W  80 KT  90 MPH

12H  06/1800Z 36.0N 74.1W  75 KT  85 MPH

24H  07/0600Z 38.8N 69.9W  75 KT  85 MPH

36H  07/1800Z 42.5N 65.4W  70 KT  80 MPH

48H  08/0600Z 46.7N 61.6W  60 KT  70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H  09/0600Z 53.0N 52.0W  45 KT  50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H  10/0600Z 58.0N 36.0W  40 KT  45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  11/0600Z 0.0S 0.0W   0 KT   0 MPH…DISSIPATED

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